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Re: blocks, options, and prevention

Posted by Klavot on July 2, 2007, at 13:54:17

In reply to Re: blocks, options, and prevention, posted by Dr. Bob on July 2, 2007, at 11:41:53

> What do you think would be a reasonable value of r in that formula?

What about r = 39. To keep the formula simple, and considering that many people are not familiar with the exponential function, one can perhaps replace exp(x) = e^x with 3^x, since e = 2.71828... is close to 3. In fact, I just plotted the two functions on my computer, and for 0 <= P <= 52 (i.e. within the first year of a previous block having expired), it turns out that 3^(-P/39) is nearly identical with exp(-P/39).

Then the formula would be

B = S + D*[3^(-P/39)].

Then the extent to which a previous block would be used against a poster diminishes as follows:

1 week (P = 1): 3^(-P/39) = 0.97;
2 weeks (P = 2): 3^(-P/39) = 0.95;
1 month (P = 4): 3^(-P/39) = 0.89;
2 months (P = 8): 3^(-P/39) = 0.80;
3 months (P = 12): 3^(-P/39) = 0.71;
6 months (P = 24): 3^(-P/39) = 0.51;
1 year (P = 52): 3^(-P/39) = 0.23.

Thus, within the first month of another incivility occuring, the poster would be penalised with a block consisting of S plus roughly his previous block. After 3 months, the poster would be penalised with a block consisting of S plus roughly 70 % of his previous block. After 6 months, you would get S plus half your previous block, and after a year, you would get S plus roughly one quarter your previous block.

(That is the reason I chose r = 39. It is the smallest r that guarantees that after 6 months, previous incivility will still factor. So even if the previous block was only one week, and that expired 6 months ago, then

B = S + D*[3^(-P/39)] = S + 1*[3^(-24/39)] = S + 0.51 -> S + 1 week.)

If people consider that to be too strict, then r can be lowered; if people consider that to be too lenient, then r can be raised.

In Zenhussy's case, we would then get

B = S + D*[3^(-P/39)] = 1 + 48*[3^(-147/39)] = 1.76 -> 2 weeks.

It turns out that here, previous incivility would still factor, because of the great length of the previous block (48 weeks).





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