Posted by bleauberry on May 2, 2018, at 12:07:07
In reply to Prevalence of depression in Lyme = 7 in 1000 ?, posted by SLS on May 1, 2018, at 6:40:51
In the same amount of time it took to research all this and then crunch the numbers and extrapolate, an LLMD could have been located and an appointment set on the books.
Number crunching and skepticism does not heal. Progress happens when we let go and just do it.
These calculations are totally flawed, to boot. There are no accurate scientific numbers to work with. The best we have are estimates and anecdotal. Data from 'establishment academia' sources are terribly flawed by politics and economics. They are far from accurate.
In the realm of estimates and anecdotal, clinicians with experience in this topic who deal with it every day in their clinics - not think tanks - confidently claim that only 1 in 10 people with lyme is correctly diagnosed.
It's hard to do accurate number crunching when the sources of data are so spectacularly different. With that said, we have to choose sides. I chose the side that has been working. I abandoned the side that didn't work for 20+ years.
Ruling it in or out requires 2 hours of time and about $300 cash. With an experienced LLMD. Ruling it in or out does not happen with think tanks or calculators.
imo
> Initial calculation.
>
> -----------------------------------
>
> a) Prevalence of Lyme Disease in the United States = 329,000
> https://www.cdc.gov/lyme/stats/humancases.html
>
> b) Prevalence of Lyme Disease that presents as depression = 40% (0.40)
> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7943444
>
> c) Prevalence of Major Depressive Disorder - 16,200,00
> https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/major-depression.shtml
>
>
> -------------------------------------------------------
>
> Depression cases with Lyme Disease =
>
> (a x b) / c
>
> -------------------------------------------------------
>
> (329,000 x 0.40)/16,200,000 = 0.00741 = 0.741% = 7/1000
>
> -------------------------------------------------------
>
>
poster:bleauberry
thread:1098431
URL: http://www.dr-bob.org/babble/20180331/msgs/1098459.html