Posted by Lou Pilder on May 5, 2010, at 15:18:58
In reply to Re: Lou's reply-rolthedyce » Lou Pilder, posted by SLS on May 5, 2010, at 12:43:24
> > So lets say that the frequecy of one having a mind-altered state induced by taking the drug is one out of 1000, and they take the drug 3 times a day, then in 333 days or so, the frequency could be even, like a flip of a coin.
>
> The probability that you describe here is given as the rate per person, not the rate per dose. The likelihood that someone will incur a behavioral side effect might actually decrease with progressive doses.
>
> Perhaps you can find some statistics to work with in order to establish the rate of suicide due to antidepressant use versus that of untreated depression. It might help people to make decisions.
>
> For what it's worth, a recent study reported that the risk of suicide is the same among the various antidepressants. I can't offer the actual article, but it can be found in the May issue of Archives of General Psychiatry.
>
>
> - Scott
>
Scott,
You wrote,[...the probability that you decribe here is given as...].
I used the two examples of the rolling of dice and the revolver to show two types of thinking in relation to probability. In the rolling of dice, each roll is not affected by the previous roll. In the revolver, unless we spin the revolver each time, which I did not specify, then that is a different way to look at probability from the rolling of dice.
But now let us look at another way of thinking about probability. suppose we have 1000 balls in a tank and there is one green ball. Let us suppose that we pick one ball out of the tank and want it to be the green ball. The probablilty is one out of 1000 to pick the green ball (on the first pick). Now if we do not replace the ball and pick again, that is different from replacing the ball and picking again.
Now in relation to taking a drug, we ask if taking a pill each time has the same probability of inducing a mind-altering state to the person so that they want to kill themselves, or is the taking of continued pills accumlative in making the probability greater (or less) for that state to happen to the person.
Well, if the drug is notated as in the clas of drugs that could induce the person to kill themselves, then that is different from the person taking a drug that is not classified as such. Here we are interested in mind-altering drugs and the research shows that they have the potential to induce a state of mind that is altered so that the ones taking the drug could want to kill themselves. Now I would think that if the drug has that potential, then it can do what it can do. In reading the reports of those that killed others while on those type of drugs, there are those that had a dreamlike state of mind and they did not have recall of them killing others. Some of those also killed themselves and we do not know if all of those in that catagory knew that they were taking their own life. In the trial records of some mass murders, who were on antidepressants, some said that they did not know that they were killing others and that the drug caused them to kill the other people.
There are records of people admitted in hospitals for suicide attempts, but there could be a large number of people that tried and failed and were not admitted.
But getting back to the issue here, if one wants to think in terms of probability as to if or if not taking the drug will induce a mind-altered state to have them want to kill themselves, or others, or to think that if they are suicidal before they take the drug that they will have less of that type of thinking by taking the drug, or some other reasoning, then they have the opportunity from what they understand about probability as to if taking the drug is trying to get a particular ball out of a tank by either replacing the ball on each pick or not, to take the risk or not, thus determing for themselves if the benefit outweighs the risk or if it is possible that taking the drug will lessen the chances.
Lou
poster:Lou Pilder
thread:946156
URL: http://www.dr-bob.org/babble/20100504/msgs/946442.html