Posted by linkadge on July 18, 2008, at 23:25:47
In reply to Re: Want to stop meds ... should I? » linkadge, posted by SLS on July 18, 2008, at 19:27:35
I really don't see how this shows anything.
In the 15-44 range, most of the suicide rates are higher in 2003 than what they were in the 50's 60's and 70's. Infact, most in this range continue to rise and peak around 1995. This is well into the introduction of the MAOI's, TCA's, ECT, and even the SSRI's. You see a small decline from 1995 to 2003, but still, the rate is higher than what is was in the pre-antidepressant period.
In the 25-34 and 35-44 ranges its still higher now than what it was in the 60's. Again, this rate peaks at about 1995 (when AD's are widely available and used). In this category, it drops a little from 95-2000, but then increases again (not this is still in the pre-black box SSRI warning era). I.e. in this category you're still higher than what you were in the pre-AD periods, and you continue to increase dispite the introduction and use of various AD's.The *only* group that has shown a consistent decrease in suicide rates since 1950/1960 is in the 45+ category. This category has a strong pull on the overal statistic as it is unusually high in the 1950's and 60's. **But**, if you notice, in this category, the rate starts to substantially drop well before the use of antidepressants. In fact, this category drops from 20ish down to 15ish just into the 80's *before* the more widespread use of AD's.
The elevated level of suicide in this category could be a post war effect as you only see the elevated suicide rate in adults in this period.
I.e. if you just focus on the 45-64 rates for the 50's, 50's and 70's, you notice that the significanly high rate here is what is really whats shaping the overall *all ages* stat. And, if you realize that this significantly elevated rate drops *before* the widespread use of AD's you realize that this category has already dropped to approxaimatly the suicide rate it is now before the use of AD's. I.e. the 45-64 category has not changed much 1980-2003.
That is why it is misleading to look at the "all ages".
Overall however, I see is that in every age category you have a rate that is either higher now than what it was before AD's (1950-60's), or it has dropped *before* the widespread use of AD's.
Also, that many of the rates peak in the mid 90's when AD's were widely used. There is a small, nonsignificant drop in *some* categories from 1995-03, but still not to the level it was before antidepressants *and* some categories it increases again from 2000-2003 (still before the black box warning was issued).I certainly don't see any drops in suicide as a result of the antidepressant era, instead an increase from pre-AD era, and a steady increase throughout the AD era. The small decrease from 95 till present is just a microtrend and will only have meaning in another few decades.
Remember, the overall data doesn't mean anything as it is combining the effect of the elevated rate in group mentioned (44-65 1960-1970) which drops on its own before the widespread use of AD's.
Linkadge
poster:linkadge
thread:840049
URL: http://www.dr-bob.org/babble/20080718/msgs/840650.html