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Re: They just don't work. FALLACY.

Posted by Larry Hoover on April 17, 2008, at 16:01:27

In reply to Re: They just don't work. FALLACY. » Shadowplayers721, posted by Larry Hoover on April 17, 2008, at 15:27:51

> > I would like to read the actual case study. Do you know where I may find that link? Thank you.
>
> I did a critique of the actual article, within which is a link to the full text. See: http://www.dr-bob.org/babble/20080221/msgs/815551.html
>
> Lar

I just took a quick read through what I wrote earlier, and I realize that I might have expressed one point a little more clearly. What I said was:

"Now, here's a very illustrative figure, Figure 4: http://medicine.plosjournals.org/perlserv/?request=slideshow&type=figure&doi=10.1371/journal.pmed.0050045&id=96831

First, the zero line is no difference (i.e. superiority) of drug or placebo. Below zero is placebo superiority, whereas above it is drug superiority. What's the pattern tell you? Do we find just as many points below the zero line, and just as far from it, as we do above it? "

What I should then have done is answer the question. The answer is a resounding NO! But, that's what we'd see if there was no difference between placebo and drug response. We'd see similar scatter above and below the zero effect size line. Instead, we see near absolute dominance of drug over placebo, and often times very substantial dominance, in individual trials.

The paper's conclusions are unsupported by the evidence.

In fact, Kirsch might have argued that the cost of psychotherapy could be eliminated by sugar pills, but I doubt he'd have suggested that.

Lar

 

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poster:Larry Hoover thread:823248
URL: http://www.dr-bob.org/babble/20080412/msgs/823830.html