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Re: Statistical question on SSRIs - Psychobabble s » Larry Hoover

Posted by Squiggles on May 10, 2006, at 9:05:07

In reply to Re: Statistical question on SSRIs - Psychobabble says » Larry Hoover, posted by Larry Hoover on May 10, 2006, at 8:31:37

First, sorry about your medical problem. Best
of luck.

.........

> > > And when you describe a slope ( i guess that
> > > is on a statistical graph ) as possible only
> > > by independent variables - what would those
> > > be? Are they typical of this clinical study
> > > alone?
> > >
> > > Squiggles
> >
> > A plot of "all cause suicide deaths" against "total population" for consecutive time periods would yield a graph where the first derivative, the slope, is equal to the rate.
> >

OK - i will try to follow this; i hope you will
be patient; i really am innumerate:

The rate of suicide = the number of suicides over
"consecutive years" from all causes?


> > The rate was stable over two periods of time, but different, one from the other. One time period of stable rate preceded the stable rate seen around the time of the SSRIs. Inferences were drawn.
> >
> > Lar
>

A stable rate before the introduction of Prozac
in the market, could be a low rate of suicide or
a high rate of suicide.


> .......


> The revised version:
>
> A plot of "all cause suicide deaths" against "total population" for consecutive time periods would yield a graph where the first derivative of the best fit line, the slope, is equal to the rate. In this case, plots from two periods eighteen years apart yielded different best fit lines (i.e. different rates). Statistical testing showed that the difference between the two rates was significant. [The rate during a period of high sales of antidepressants (including SSRIs) was significantly lower than a period when antidepressants were prescribed less often.]
>
> Then I went into blather, which is why my brain called a halt to the proceedings. I have a weird brain.
>

Well, it seems to be functioning better than mine.

> I know very well that there are alternate explanations for the significant inverse correlation (i.e. I'm not trying to say SSRIs brought it down). The fact that it is inverse, and significantly so, places an upper bound on the effect size for your hypothetical SSRI-mediated suicide induction process.
>
> As it happens, on reloading the pages I was working from last night, I found another more recent Scandinavian report.
>
> http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=pubmed&dopt=Abstract&list_uids=16582062
>
> Therein, it is stated that, "In all four countries decreases in suicide rates appeared to precede the widespread use...

Is a suicide rate decrease preceding widespread
use of ADs (incl. SSRIs) equivalent to an
increase in suicide rate in the increase rate
of SSRI use? It's a statistical inference
that does not seem to take into account the
counterexample studies, as well as other possible factors in the country, age, social events, and
personal circumstances. Wow, is this the way
science is done?

...........
> As my intent here has been to show that SSRI-induction hypothesis has an upper bound, this new evidence is also consistent with my earlier conclusions.
>
> If I had evidence to support your hypothesis, Squiggles, I'd show you. I haven't found any, yet.
>
> Lar
>

Thank you. I am really sorry that i am
past my level of incompetence now. Maybe
others can understand the meaning of these
stastical studies better than I.

Good luck recovering from your medical test.

Squiggles


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poster:Squiggles thread:640557
URL: http://www.dr-bob.org/babble/20060510/msgs/642075.html