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Dr. Bob is Robert Hsiung, MD,
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Posted by Phillipa on June 4, 2009, at 10:36:40
Seems the WHO is watching Countries Like Australia as the flu this year there could signal Swine for the World. Phillipa
Swine Flu Alert Center
From WebMD Health News
WHO: World Closer to H1N1 Flu Pandemic
Daniel J. DeNoon
June 2, 2009 The world is "getting closer" to a full-scale H1N1 influenza pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned today.The official declaration of a pandemic alert triggered by widespread H1N1 swine flu beyond the Americas will come with a new severity rating, said Keiji Fukuda, WHO interim assistant director-general for health security and environment.
The WHO has been dragging its feet over declaring a worldwide pandemic to avoid causing undue alarm and to allow it time to develop specific guidance for different parts of the world.
When swine flu broke out, the world was already at phase 3 of its six-phase pandemic warning system. That was because the deadly H5N1 bird flu was infecting humans but not spreading from person to person.
When swine flu burst upon the world in April, the WHO rapidly raised its warning level from phase 4 and then to phase 5 as it became clear a flu virus new to humans was spreading easily and widely from person to person.
"Globally we believe we are at phase 5 but getting closer to phase 6," Fukuda said today at a news conference. "It is clear the virus continues to spread internationally. There are a number of countries that appear to be in transition [to widespread infections at the community level]. These countries include the U.K., Spain, Japan, Chile, and also Australia."
When the WHO finally does declare a global swine flu pandemic, it likely will rate the severity of the disease as moderate, not mild or severe.
"It is fair to call the situation moderate," Fukuda said. "We know this infection can be fatal in a number of individuals. This includes people who have some underlying medical conditions and it includes women who are pregnant -- but it also includes people who are perfectly healthy. So we do have some hesitation calling such an infection mild."
Fukuda noted that severity does not solely depend on the virulence of the virus.
"Severity is not just a quality of the virus and its ability to harm people, but a combination of that virulence and the vulnerability of populations -- how well off they are in terms of chronic conditions and poverty and malnourishment," he said. "And it's also a matter of the resilience of nations, how well they are able to cope with diseases."
Fukuda said the WHO's rating would be flexible in order to change as the pandemic becomes more or less severe.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on the Southern Hemisphere particularly Chile and Australia as swine flu hits that part of the world just as it's entering normal flu season. At this early point in their flu season, Fukuda said, nearly all flu cases appear to be swine flu and not seasonal flu.
"We will look carefully to see if the kind of illness typical of flu is seen in the Southern Hemisphere, and particularly at which age groups," Fukuda said. "Will there be a change in the number of people who develop serious illness? Will there be a change in the virus itself? We expect the virus to drift, but does that really lead to any changes in the behavior of the virus, and to the antigenicity of the virus [that would affect vaccine development]? We will be monitoring that carefully."
SOURCES:
Keiji Fukuda, interim assistant director-general for health security and environment, World Health Organization.
World Health Organization web site.
Posted by cactus on June 4, 2009, at 10:36:40
In reply to Swine Flu Not Out Of Pic All Eyes On Australia, posted by Phillipa on June 3, 2009, at 22:03:24
Well the town I live in is ground zero for Australia, about 2 weeks ago we had 1 case from the Americas, now it's 752, in my city alone. It's happened that quickly because it's winter and it's cold and flu season. They are worried that places like Australia and Chile or anywhere in the southern hemisphere where it has exploded very quickly, could be the place where it's going to mutate. Melbourne and the state of Victoria is the 1st place outside North America that has been put into the same category as Canada, US and Mexico. Wish us luck, there have been no deaths here yet, but winter has only begun. 752 confirmed cases in 2 weeks, Melbourne's population is 3.5 Million. It's going to be very interesting but thankfully it has been very mild for the vast majority of people who have contracted it, who are mainly students. Wish us luck!! Peace C
Posted by Phillipa on June 4, 2009, at 10:36:40
In reply to Re: Swine Flu Not Out Of Pic All Eyes On Australia, posted by cactus on June 4, 2009, at 2:04:37
Cactus I do wish you luck. I had no idea Swine Flu still was being watched so closely by the CDC. Last I'd read of it they had downgraded it. Mostly students? Just like in the states it was in the New York School systems. Phillipa ps thank-fully no deaths
Posted by Phillipa on June 4, 2009, at 12:14:12
In reply to Swine Flu Not Out Of Pic All Eyes On Australia, posted by Phillipa on June 4, 2009, at 10:36:40
Just in case anyone follows thread. Phillipa
Posted by cactus on June 5, 2009, at 5:47:08
In reply to Re: Swine Flu Not Out Of Pic All Eyes On Australia, posted by Phillipa on June 4, 2009, at 12:14:12
Confirmed cases up to 1006 nationwide, most are in Melbourne though. They have stopped testing in Melbourne now, it's too far gone, now around 900 (confirmed) cases here in 2 weeks. I'm tipping there are thousands. It's starting to get cold now too.
Posted by yxibow on June 5, 2009, at 10:16:31
In reply to Re: Swine Flu Not Out Of Pic All Eyes On Australia, posted by cactus on June 5, 2009, at 5:47:08
I'm sorry to hear it has spread to the Southern Hemisphere -- this is a natural flu progression though that was seen in the last 'regular' flu shot I believe.
The shot was:
A/Brisbane/59/2007(H1N1)-like virus;
A/Brisbane/10/2007 (H3N2)-like virus;
B/Florida/4/2006-like virus.Some years it has been Wyoming combined with other parts of the world, etc.
-- Jay
Posted by cactus on June 5, 2009, at 16:00:47
In reply to Re: Swine Flu Not Out Of Pic All Eyes On Australia » cactus, posted by yxibow on June 5, 2009, at 10:16:31
That was the exact flu vax shot I had a couple of months ago Jay. Most people here aren't really worried about it. People who have had regular seasonal flu have been much sicker at this point in time, which is also on the rise. That's why the powers that be are worried that it has a much greater chance of mutating here in the southern hemisphere. I think people are more surprised at how fast it has exploded here. Our total population is only 21 million with 1006 officially confirmed cases in just over 2 weeks. The media has finally back off a bit now and so has the hysteria.
> I'm sorry to hear it has spread to the Southern Hemisphere -- this is a natural flu progression though that was seen in the last 'regular' flu shot I believe.
>
> The shot was:
>
> A/Brisbane/59/2007(H1N1)-like virus;
> A/Brisbane/10/2007 (H3N2)-like virus;
> B/Florida/4/2006-like virus.
>
> Some years it has been Wyoming combined with other parts of the world, etc.
>
> -- Jay
>
>
Posted by Phillipa on June 5, 2009, at 20:15:56
In reply to Re: Swine Flu Not Out Of Pic All Eyes On Australia » yxibow, posted by cactus on June 5, 2009, at 16:00:47
Cactus I think they are trying to keep people from panicing here as theri-flu sold out. Right now the CDC is working a much boarder range in this years flu vaccine. I refuse to take it as I only get it when get the shot. Phillipa How's Sydney fairing a friend there?
Posted by cactus on June 6, 2009, at 2:13:00
In reply to Re: Swine Flu Not Out Of Pic All Eyes On Australia » cactus, posted by Phillipa on June 5, 2009, at 20:15:56
Sydney is approaching 80 cases, I have never got the flu from a flu shot. Here's another article that has stirred the fear pot again
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25594851-5006785,00.html
Statically it's correct but it doesn't need to scare people like this, I was out and about in the City today and every second person is coughing or sneezing, no one is really bothered. I haven't seen one person wearing a face mask, what can you do. The rest of the country seem terrified by us, I just don't think they realise that it's just a matter of time before it spreads nation wide. We're further south so it gets colder here first.
Here's a link to our local reporting of confirmed cases, mind you Melbourne and Victoria have stopped counting, it's just too late here, but hey, it is winter.
Click on UPDATE BULLETINS on the left for the latest figures.
http://www.healthemergency.gov.au/internet/healthemergency/publishing.nsf/Content/home-1
Posted by Sigismund on June 6, 2009, at 15:43:53
In reply to Re: Swine Flu Not Out Of Pic All Eyes On Australia » Phillipa, posted by cactus on June 6, 2009, at 2:13:00
I am impressed to see an Asian country regard Australia as a health risk.
A bit more of that might be good for our national character.But how bad is this swine flu? Flu itself can be pretty awful.
Posted by cactus on June 6, 2009, at 17:01:07
In reply to Re: Swine Flu Not Out Of Pic All Eyes On Australia, posted by Sigismund on June 6, 2009, at 15:43:53
Most people are saying it's like a nasty head cold, annoying and miserable, fever, headaches and mild body aches. Not enough for most people to keep them home or from functioning, I think that's why it's spreading so quickly. Most people don't feel sick enough to stay home. One of my co-workers had seasonal flu and he got very sick with it, shivers and shakes, high fever, sore back and aching bones with a splitting headache, bed ridden for a couple of days. He'd been in contact with a swine flu person days earlier.
He was quarantined because his wife is pregnant and they thought it was swine flu, he finally got his test back and was told it's just seasonal flu, you're clear to go home now. What's up with that!!
It seems it's not as severe as seasonal flu YET, seasonal flu puts most people in bed for a few days, where as swine flu doesn't seem to be doing that on a large scale down here so far, and most people in general are recovering very quickly from it.
> I am impressed to see an Asian country regard Australia as a health risk.
> A bit more of that might be good for our national character.
>
> But how bad is this swine flu? Flu itself can be pretty awful.
Posted by Sigismund on June 6, 2009, at 19:21:30
In reply to Re: Swine Flu Not Out Of Pic All Eyes On Australia » Sigismund, posted by cactus on June 6, 2009, at 17:01:07
The Japanese apparently had the best success with the 1918 flu, because they told the afflicted to go home, go to bed and drink green tea, and so the infection rate there was much lower.
Posted by Phillipa on June 6, 2009, at 20:25:59
In reply to Re: Swine Flu Not Out Of Pic All Eyes On Australia » cactus, posted by Sigismund on June 6, 2009, at 19:21:30
Sigi need to write Chris and see how he's doing as in Uni. Love PJ For some reason it doesn't bother me as would just stay home and ride my bike. But then how do I get my purchases to post on ebay and food?
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