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Dr. Bob is Robert Hsiung, MD,
bob@dr-bob.orgShown: posts 13 to 37 of 37. Go back in thread:
Posted by Jay2112 on December 20, 2021, at 21:17:12
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts?, posted by SLS on December 19, 2021, at 19:46:25
> The Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is estimated to be 5 times more transmissible / contagious than the Delta variant. At first, there was some conjecture that Omicron produced a milder COVID-19 disease. There are now reports that Omicron is just as virulent as the Delta variant. Omicron will become the dominant strain in the United States in just a few weeks. It is possible that Omicron spreads more quickly than Delta, but is just as lethal. I doubt there is a consensus.
>
>
> - Scott
>I don't think there is a consensus, and this bit from the New Yorker (behind a paywall) tells some important details in the trends of Omicron, to the anti-vaxxer's dismay. (Scott...absolutely NOT saying you are one...quite the opposite..lol. :)
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"The first piece of good news is that this wave might be shorter lived than those of other variants. Every country is different, of course, with different population structures and different levels of immunity, both natural and from vaccination. But in South Africa, it appears that, while test positivity is still growing throughout the country, in the Omicron epicenter of Guateng the wave may be peaking already, with cases and hospital admissions both taking a visible turn, barely three weeks since the variant was first publicly announced and just five weeks since the first likely case. Guateng is not all of South Africa, of course, but a fast local peak still suggests the possibility of a very fast first wave. If the pattern holds and is replicated in the U.S., it could mean an American Omicron peak of cases sometime before the end of January."==
"The second piece of good news is that as the wave progresses in South Africa, the cases continue to appear mild. This data is still early; typically, infections take several weeks to complete their clinical course, and probably we wont have a clear picture of the relative severity of Omicron in South Africa for another week or two, either. (As science journalist Kai Kupferschmidt wrote recently, This pandemic has been all about communicating uncertainty and it doesnt get more uncertain than early data on new variants.) On top of that, the picture will reflect conditions in South Africa as much as the inherent severity of the new variant, which means that, while illuminating, that forthcoming data will not be definitive, at least as concerns the future course of the Omicron elsewhere in the world. As William Hanage and Roby Bhattacharyya have argued, the early data might just reflect local acquired immunity, which offers significant but incomplete protection against severe disease, rather than innate properties of the variant itself. (This would make the relative protection of a given population a much more significant factor in the ultimate course of the wave than even how severe Omicron itself is.) But while excess deaths are beginning to grow in Guateng, indeed at the same rate as earlier waves, there are reasons to believe that the ultimate toll will be smaller than with Delta and earlier variants namely that, unlike in those previous waves, deaths in this wave are increasing at a much slower rate than cases are. At the moment, as John Burn-Murdoch of the Financial Times has tabulated, cases in Guateng are at 95 percent of their Delta peak, with deaths at only 10 percent of that peak; in the U.K., the proportion is the same. That is not to say that we should expect, at the end of the wave, proportionally only one-tenth as many deaths as were observed in the earlier waves there is a lag, often several weeks long, between case peaks and death peaks. But it is nevertheless an encouraging sign that the early indications that Omicron might produce, overall, more mild outcomes are still holding.
And the third piece of good news is that we now have a possible biological explanation for reduced severity, which gives the observed preliminary data another layer of plausibility. That comes from research by the University of Hong Kong, which finds that the new variant is much more efficient in reproducing in the upper respiratory tract, where you can cough and sneeze it out onto others, and much less efficient in the lungs, where it will be most dangerous to the infected host. A few weeks ago, in the very earliest days observing Omicron, the epidemiologist Francois Balloux called this the highly optimistic scenario which, if it came to pass, would mean the world had gotten really lucky. (He also suggested it could be a sign that the virus was, in fact, evolving in response to vaccines not in the way anti-vaxxers believe, by making it more virulent, but the opposite.)"
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Jay
Posted by Jay2112 on December 20, 2021, at 21:26:55
In reply to NYT today on vaccines Thoughts?, posted by Phillipa on December 19, 2021, at 11:40:34
Well, in the words of world-renowned scientist Dr. Neil degrasse Tyson, "The good thing about vaccines, is that they work whether you believe in them or not." :)
Jay
Posted by Hugh on December 20, 2021, at 22:51:18
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts? » Hugh, posted by Phillipa on December 20, 2021, at 17:44:04
> Hugh I read the exact same article today. Sounding like Moderna booster is the one most likely to be protective at the moment. Would be nice if Omnicon burned itself out before a specific vaccine said to be most likely ready in March is available. Phillipa
Moderna is the booster I got. My first two shots were Pfizer.
Posted by Phillipa on December 20, 2021, at 23:04:43
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts? » Phillipa, posted by Hugh on December 20, 2021, at 22:51:18
Hugh now have to find it. Sounds like of the two Moderna is the one that now says their's if effective against this variant. I wonder what is said tomorrow? Phillipa
Posted by Lamdage22 on December 21, 2021, at 1:31:26
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts? » Phillipa, posted by Hugh on December 20, 2021, at 22:51:18
I will probably get the same constellation. If you had the choice, would you have taken a third biontech? I am worried about my heart. But I hear B-B-M gives better protection against covid.
> Moderna is the booster I got. My first two shots were Pfizer.
>
>
Posted by Hugh on December 24, 2021, at 8:57:10
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts?, posted by Lamdage22 on December 21, 2021, at 1:31:26
Moderna was my first choice for my booster. If you're worried about your heart, then go with Pfizer. It's only slightly less effective than Moderna.
Posted by Lamdage22 on December 24, 2021, at 9:25:54
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts? » Lamdage22, posted by Hugh on December 24, 2021, at 8:57:10
The only way to not be concerned with Moderna would be not lifting for two weeks after the shot. I wouldn't like that!
Posted by linkadge on December 24, 2021, at 16:45:32
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts? » Hugh, posted by Phillipa on December 20, 2021, at 17:44:04
The Moderna vaccine is associated with slightly more pronounced side effects, but some studies also show it provides more durable protection. I got a Pfizer first dose (no side effects) and then a Moderna for a second shot. The Moderna produced more sickness (headache, chills, fever, pain) for me, but it rapidly subsided in 24 hours.
I would disagree with the notion that Omicron is equally deadly. The data (to date) seems to suggest it is milder and results in faster recovery. Yet, as mentioned, it is more transmissible. Time will tell on this, but obviously take all precautions.
Interestingly, the South African data seems to suggest that Omicron cases may peak and subside faster than with Delta. Cases of Omicron have been falling in South Africa (the region with first known cases) at the time of writing this.
I do recommend vaccination as the data shows it provides significant protection against severe outcomes and death. It does this with a very acceptable side effect profile. All of us here take drugs with rare (potentially lethal) side effects. For example, citalopram can (extremely rarely) kill you from effects on QT prolongation. This being said, we all make the cost-benefit judgments for psych meds and so I don't know why we wouldn't do it for vaccines as well.
P.S. my next-door neighbours (rabid antivaxxers) just got taken away in an ambulance. The son in law said they were both not feeling well for a few days and both were having difficulty breathing. This is likely COVID.
Linkadge
Posted by Beckett2 on December 28, 2021, at 3:31:59
In reply to NYT today on vaccines Thoughts?, posted by Phillipa on December 19, 2021, at 11:40:34
Moderna for all three. Second shot of Moderna made by me Ill for 36 hours. Thats all. Still being very careful. Mental illness was recently listed by CDC as a risk factor. Inflammation I suspect. You still take Paxil (is it?) because it supposedly has shown some protection against severe illness.
Posted by Phillipa on December 28, 2021, at 9:24:34
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts? » Phillipa, posted by Beckett2 on December 28, 2021, at 3:31:59
Have not gotten a booster. Waiting as each day seems something new is released about the what some doctors are now saying are not really vaccines. Due to the fact that a vaccine irradicates a disease and these don't. Israel is now giving 4th shots. I keep watching the UK as what is happening there they say will or is predicted to be the same here in the US. I lost my my pdoc when the pandemic began he retired. No others are taking medicaire. So I'm alone using the meds that I have kept. Luvox is what I use with some lexapro but none are theraputic dose. Just 12.5mg of luvox, 2.5mg of lexapro. I have and need the .75mg of xanax to sleep with 7.5mg of valium. My endocrinologist has prescribed the benzos now for the last time. I have no idea what I will do now. Age 75 been on the benzos since age 24 taking much less than did then. Luvox is the one that they say they are studying for Covid. How are you? Phillipa
Posted by Lamdage22 on December 29, 2021, at 9:39:08
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts? » Beckett2, posted by Phillipa on December 28, 2021, at 9:24:34
I got the Moderna Booster. I seem to be alright. From what I hear, the dose of the Moderna Booster equals that of Biontech initial immunization. So the heart risk should be equal?
Posted by Phillipa on December 29, 2021, at 18:27:37
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts?, posted by Lamdage22 on December 29, 2021, at 9:39:08
Pfizer first two and now Moderna? Congrats you are more courageous than I am so far and need to get Moderna myself. How are you feeling? Phillipa
Posted by Lamdage22 on December 30, 2021, at 0:47:32
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts? » Lamdage22, posted by Phillipa on December 29, 2021, at 18:27:37
Exactly. Feeling ok.
Posted by Lamdage22 on December 30, 2021, at 0:57:48
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts?, posted by Lamdage22 on December 30, 2021, at 0:47:32
For one or two hours I felt like I went on a humongous hike. But it passed.
Posted by Phillipa on December 30, 2021, at 9:11:03
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts?, posted by Lamdage22 on December 30, 2021, at 0:57:48
Fantastic so feeling well now then? Phillipa!
Posted by Lamdage22 on December 30, 2021, at 10:44:25
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts? » Lamdage22, posted by Phillipa on December 30, 2021, at 9:11:03
Yeah, I'm just bored. Sports are my only activity right now and I need to pause it. I'm not thrilled to do that.
Posted by Hugh on December 31, 2021, at 9:40:08
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts?, posted by Hugh on December 20, 2021, at 13:33:04
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-12-johnson-booster-effective-omicron-safrica.html
Johnson booster 85% effective against Omicron: S.Africa study
A booster of US coronavirus vaccine Johnson & Johnson was 85 percent effective in preventing serious illness in areas where Omicron was dominant, a South African trial study indicated Thursday.
The South African Medical Research Council conducted the study on health workers from November 15 to December 20, but it has still not been peer-reviewed.
It found the top-up jab to largely protect staff in a country where the highly transmissible strain is now behind most Covid cases.
"Data from the... study confirm that the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 booster shot provides 85 percent effectiveness against hospitalization in areas where Omicron is dominant," Johnson & Johnson said.
"This adds to our growing body of evidence which shows that the effectiveness of the Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine remains strong and stable over time, including against circulating variants such as Omicron and Delta," it said.
Around half a million South African health staff have received Johnson jabs as part of clinical trials.
Africa's hardest-hit country, South Africa has recorded more than 3.4 million cases and 90,000 deaths since the start of the pandemic.
An earlier South African study in December found the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to be less effective overall against Omicron, but still prevented hospital admissions by up to 70 percent.
Posted by Lamdage22 on December 31, 2021, at 10:35:04
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts?, posted by Hugh on December 31, 2021, at 9:40:08
Is it better than mRNA?
Posted by Hugh on December 31, 2021, at 12:23:39
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts?, posted by Lamdage22 on December 31, 2021, at 10:35:04
> Is it better than mRNA?
It's too early to say for certain, but it appears that the mRNA boosters, especially Moderna, are better at protecting against severe illness than a Johnson & Johnson booster, but that the protection given by a Johnson & Johnson booster might last a good deal longer than the mRNA boosters.
Posted by Phillipa on December 31, 2021, at 18:37:28
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts? » Lamdage22, posted by Hugh on December 31, 2021, at 12:23:39
Hugh seven months now counted 6 months is what is being said the time limit to boost with 2 J&J to work. And the blood clots and bleeding issues bother me since family history is strokes in females. So the Moderna as a mix & match at booster dose does that sound safer to you? Thanks Phillipa
Posted by Hugh on January 1, 2022, at 15:07:34
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts? » Hugh, posted by Phillipa on December 31, 2021, at 18:37:28
A Covid infection is many times more likely to cause blood clots than the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. I think the best bet for a booster shot at this time is Moderna. It appears to provide the most protection against the Omicron variant.
Posted by Phillipa on January 1, 2022, at 18:16:29
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts? » Phillipa, posted by Hugh on January 1, 2022, at 15:07:34
Hugh thanks for responding. My endo suggested the Moderna booster shot the one with half the doseage from the first two vaccines. Now to work up the courage. I've always feared meds. Phillipa
Posted by Beckett2 on January 2, 2022, at 0:12:16
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts? » Hugh, posted by Phillipa on January 1, 2022, at 18:16:29
> Hugh thanks for responding. My endo suggested the Moderna booster shot the one with half the doseage from the first two vaccines. Now to work up the courage. I've always feared meds. Phillipa
Itll probably feel good getting it over with. Do you go out much?
Posted by Phillipa on January 2, 2022, at 9:42:40
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts? » Phillipa, posted by Beckett2 on January 2, 2022, at 0:12:16
Just rides in the car and riding bike outside in the neighborhood where do get to talk quickly to others weather permitting. Only out of house inside is to use the bathroom in a gas station. But yesterday we went into a neighbor's home to look at their sunroom they just added and although masked. My husband removed his. He goes into to grocery stores masked. But this is wearing thin on me. I don't want to bring politics into this but I don't trust the vaccines not anti-vax at all. But seems they is a lot of mis-truth by the Fauci man. You got moderna didn't you? Phillipa
Posted by Lamdage22 on January 2, 2022, at 9:44:55
In reply to Re: NYT today on vaccines Thoughts? » Beckett2, posted by Phillipa on January 2, 2022, at 9:42:40
COVID, extreme Isolation or the vaccine. We have to choose our poison
This is the end of the thread.
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